Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in another Middle East/North Africa country?

Looking at this market, it appears folks are quite skeptical about the possibility of Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting in another Middle East or North African country anytime soon, with the current odds sitting at just 1% for "yes." That’s a strong indicator that the crowd sees the chances of any such meeting as exceedingly slim.

This market is really asking about future diplomatic engagements between the two leaders, particularly in regions that have historically served as neutral grounds for international diplomacy. It's fascinating because the ongoing war in Ukraine creates an environment of high tension, making the likelihood of face-to-face discussions, especially outside of Ukraine, seem nearly impossible for now.

The odds might be driven by several factors. First and foremost is the current geopolitical climate. The war continues to create deep animosity, which likely influences market sentiments. The recent actions in Ukraine, especially given the potential military escalation, make the idea of a meeting seem less realistic. As long as hostilities persist, there’s a strong psychological barrier that both leaders must navigate.

Another point to consider is the role of external actors. A meeting in the Middle East or North Africa might be contingent on the involvement or facilitation by third-party countries. For instance, nations like Turkey have offered to mediate discussions, but little has been concretely realized in that regard. With the US and European response to Russia further complicating the diplomatic landscape, it appears that odds are favoring continued distance rather than rapprochement.

Looking ahead, keep an eye on upcoming international summits or forums where both leaders might find themselves. Events like G20 meetings, or any gatherings of world leaders, could spur unexpected dialogues. If either side shows willingness to engage diplomatically, that could shift market sentiments significantly. Watch for any announcements from neutral countries about offering venues for discussions, as these could also impact the odds.

The crowd seems pretty convinced that, barring some unforeseen circumstances, there won’t be a dialogue anytime soon. It's a stark contrast to hope some might have that more openness might emerge from crises. If the conflict de-escalates or if there are significant political shifts domestically for either leader, that could turn the tide and the market could shift accordingly. But for now, the sentiment leans heavily against any imminent meetings and suggests we remain in a phase of waiting and watching rather than rapprochement.